Live Tracking

BTC 15m Edge Signal Tracker

Every time our mathematical model detects an edge of 5%+ on a BTC 15-minute Polymarket market, we record a signal. After the market resolves, we mark it WIN or LOSS. This page shows the live accuracy.

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All signals

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Signals Generated

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Correct (WIN)

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Incorrect (LOSS)

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Win Rate

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Pending

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Theory PnL ($100/signal)

How signals work: When BTC price deviates from the 15-min period start, our model calculates P(UP) using a Gaussian random walk (σ = $45/min, calibrated on 2,879 historical events). If the model probability differs from the Polymarket price by 5% or more, a signal is generated. Example: Market says 45% UP, model says 59% → signal is UP +14%. Get these signals live via @Polylenspro_bot.

Signal History Updated every 30s

Time	Direction	Edge	Model P(UP)	Buy Price	Mins Left	Status	Result	PnL%	Link
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About the Model

Formula: P(UP) = Φ( BTC_deviation / (σ × √minutes_remaining) )
σ (sigma): $45/minute — calibrated on 2,879 BTC 15m markets
Signal threshold: |model_P − market_P| ≥ 5%
Signal timing: Only recorded when ≥ 2 minutes remain (enough time to act)
PnL% calculation: Buy Price = market probability for your direction (e.g. UP signal at 39.5¢ = you pay $39.50 per $100 of shares). WIN: PnL% = (1 ÷ buy_price − 1) × 98% (includes Polymarket's 2% fee). LOSS: PnL% = −100%. Example: buy UP at 39.5¢ → WIN gives +150.1%.
Note: This is a mathematical model based on random-walk price movement. Real markets have additional factors (news, momentum). Statistics accumulate over time.